Abstract for: Stress testing of food supply chains for future pandemics: a system dynamics modeling approach for a porcine supply chain

Worldwide outbreaks of unforeseen infectious diseases, such as swine flu, Ebola, and influenza, have significantly disrupted supply chains. With approximately 75% of emerging infectious diseases believed to have a zoonotic origin, and over 36% linked to animals raised for food production, the risk of future pandemics is evident. The recent COVID-19 pandemic has further emphasized the critical importance of supply chain resilience under extraordinary conditions. While existing literature often addresses post-pandemic dynamics, research focusing on identifying vulnerabilities in supply chains to build resilience remains limited. A broader perspective, incorporating systems thinking, is essential to adapt to future shocks, particularly in the context of zoonotic diseases, to enhance supply chain resilience and sustainability. This study aims to develop a framework that integrates system dynamics modeling with other mathematical methodologies to identify vulnerabilities within food supply chains and propose effective resilience strategies to mitigate disruptions caused by zoonotic disease outbreaks. Using a porcine supply chain system as a case study, we will analyze outputs based on system failure or close-to-failure behavior to define vulnerable areas for future disruptions. Subsequently, we will determine resilience strategies, considering the diverse objectives of stakeholders and the short- vs. long-term impact of disruptions.