Abstract for: Adapting the SOURCE Model for Opioid-Related Deaths in Canada: A Dynamic Approach to Policy Development and Analysis

Canada faces a severe opioid overdose crisis, with more than 40,000 opioid toxicity deaths reported since January 2016. The crisis affects individuals, families, and communities across the nation, demanding evidence-based policy interventions to mitigate its impacts. This work seeks to address the urgent need to understand the crisis's dynamics and the potential effects of various policy interventions. The methodological foundation of this project is based on the SOURCE (Simulation of Opioid Use Response Consequences and Effects) model, a system dynamics simulation model initially developed to simulate the opioid overdose crisis in the United States. Our approach involves adapting data and parameters to the Canadian context, updating the model structure, model calibration and validation, and policy scenario simulation. The adaptation of the SOURCE model to the Canadian opioid crisis represents a critical step forward in applying system dynamics to address public health challenges.