Abstract for: Entity-based System Dynamics for Infrastructure Modeling

This paper addresses the imminent challenge of maintaining The Netherlands’ aging bridge inventory, particularly the bridges built during the post-war era (1950 to 1990). A key challenge in the replacement task is the limited construction capacity, especially with an expected surge in maintenance between 2040 and 2080. Efficient and systemic asset management is pivotal in minimizing the required capacity increase and helping ‘flatten the curve’. This paper introduces a novel spatially explicit Entity-based System Dynamics (SD) modeling method to analyze the effects of bridge maintenance cluster policies on infrastructure systems. It aims to identify effective maintenance cluster strategies for ensuring a steady and predictable maintenance capacity demand. The findings aim to guide effective asset management and policy-making to ensure safe and sustainable infrastructure in the face of increasing demands and resource constraints. We find that the approach presented in this paper provides several advantages, categorized in (1) replicability and (2) computational requirements, when modeling spatially explicit infrastructure systems, that can be used to appraise its usefulness over traditional SD modeling. To further enhance the applicability and effectiveness of the Entity-based SD methodology, there is a need for improvements in documentation and the maturity of the approach.