Abstract for: Investigating the potential value of seasonal climate forecast in agricultural decision-making: case of Vestland-Norway

This study constructs a system dynamics model to elucidate the decision-making processes within forage-based dairy farming in Vestland-Norway, and assesses the potential value of seasonal climate forecasts through simulation experiments. Using participatory mapping workshops with farmers, decision types, interconnections, and areas where seasonal climate forecasts can potentially be beneficial were identified. Simulation experiments involved shifting mowing and fertilizer application timings, allowing for the evaluation of the impacts on several quantitative metrics, primarily forage yield, forage quality, farmer's finances, and state climate compensation.