Abstract for: Long-range electricity demand forecast and sector evolution using the NESTAS System Dynamics Model: A case study of Nigeria

The evolving energy landscape demands sophisticated planning to meet national energy goals amidst increasing demand and dynamic socio-economic factors. Advanced methodologies like system dynamics are crucial for incorporating these complexities into planning, allowing for accurate projection of future demand and supply scenarios. This study focuses on various aspects of electricity management, including demand projections, supply dynamics, investment strategies, electricity price impacts, and sectoral evolution, with a specific emphasis on a Nigerian case study. Projections suggest substantial demand growth, ranging from 15GW under the business-as-usual scenario to 230GW in the aggressive growth scenario by 2060, emphasizing the urgent need for infrastructure development. Maintaining a reliable electricity supply requires a delicate balance between supply and demand through strategic investments in transmission and generation infrastructure. Adjusting tariffs can incentivize the expansion of generation capacity, thereby stabilizing the electricity sector. Emphasizing the relative benefits in the electricity mix underscores the importance of considering both economic and environmental factors.These findings provide policymakers with valuable insights to formulate sustainable strategies addressing evolving electricity needs. By integrating these insights into policy frameworks, governments can navigate the complexities of energy planning effectively, ensuring a reliable, affordable, and sustainable electricity supply for future generations.