Abstract for: Analyzing the effects of forest disturbances on the wood market

Forest disturbances driven by climate change influence the wood market due to changing quality and quantity of harvested wood. The wood market is defined by a market equilibrium of supply and demand determining prices and production. Several value chains of wood products are interconnected and lead to a complex wood market system. Increased disturbances could lead to disruptions in the wood market and cause tipping points due to rapid price changes. Within this study, the influence of climate-induced disturbances on the equilibrium of the wood market system will be analyzed. A System Dynamics model is used to simulate the wood market and external disturbances in the form of single events with increasing frequency and intensity. Monte Carlo simulations will be used to test the effect of disturbances on the wood market system and show potential tipping points.