Abstract for: Model-based educational policy development in Latvia

This study, conducted with the Ministry of Education and Science in Latvia, aimed to develop an SD simulation model for analyzing teacher demand and supply in Latvian schools under different educational policies. The model comprises five interconnected modules: 1) student module for assessing teacher demand, 2) subject offerings across schools, 3) teacher allocation among subjects and schools, 4) teacher education, and 5) school funding. Data acquisition, model interface design for ministerial, regional, and local policymakers, and result visualization are detailed. Scenarios analyzed offer insights into addressing teacher shortages, surpluses, and workload imbalances. Challenges remain in achieving optimal teacher balance. Refining recruitment strategies and continuous monitoring are essential for a sustainable education system. This research supports policymakers in enhancing teacher education quality and workload management to elevate educational outcomes in Latvia.