Abstract for: Hydrogen's Role in the Global Energy Transition

This paper investigates the role of hydrogen in achieving a decarbonized global energy system. Utilizing a global system dynamics model for the energy transition to 2050, we evaluate the potential of hydrogen across various production methods, its integration within different sectors, and the infrastructural developments required for its adoption. The analysis is bifurcated into a most-likely future scenario and a pathway to net-zero (PNZ) scenario. Our findings underscore hydrogen as a pivotal energy carrier by 2050, contributing to 5% of the global energy mix under the most-likely scenario, with significant advancements in low-carbon production methods such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) and electrolysis powered by renewable sources. The transport sector emerges as a key beneficiary, with hydrogen and its derivatives playing crucial roles in decarbonizing maritime and heavy-duty road transport. Under the PNZ scenario, hydrogen's share surges to 12-15%, underscoring its indispensability in achieving net-zero emissions. This scenario highlights a substantial increase in electrolysis capacity, spearheaded by solar and wind cost reductions. This paper contributes to the literature by providing a system dynamics analysis of hydrogen's evolving role in the context of global energy transition, explicitly accounting for endogenous interactions between regions and between hydrogen and other energy carriers.