Abstract for: Business implications of net-zero targets for district heating and cooling

District heating and cooling (DHC) helps valorize energy sources that would otherwise be wasted. Development of DHC has been heterogenous, depending on local opportunities and policy settings. With more ambitious greenhouse gas emission reduction targets, the business model can be expected to change. We use a qualitative System Dynamics approach to map the dynamics of DHC development under net-zero policies and discuss its practical implications. This analysis provides a coherent mapping of the socio-technical dynamics around DHC. Growth is driven by network effects, within the boundaries set by pre-defined goals. On the flip side, vicious cycles due to lower adoption and building energy efficiency may threaten viability. Business implications of net-zero policies will vary locally, depending on deployable energy potentials. Of note, choices at local level depend on the development of competences and legitimacy nationally. Recommendations for different actors could be specified. Utilities should place energy efficiency at the center of their business model. Municipalities can guarantee sustainable prospects through adequate strategic planning. This can be strengthened by planning firms with adequate offerings. Finally, higher levels of government can strengthen the legitimacy of desirable technologies, increasing the likelihood that they will be adopted by utilities and municipalities.