Abstract for: Transitioning to electric mobility: A system dynamics analysis of electric vehicle adoption in India

India's ambitious target to decarbonize its transport sector, driven by its dependence on imported oil, has led to significant growth in the electric vehicle (EV) market over the past three years. This study models the adoption of EVs, considering six critical factors: charging time, EV range, public awareness, EV purchase subsidies, cost ratio of EVs to internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) and availability of charging stations along with lithium recycling feedback. Findings suggest that over the next 50 years, the EV population is projected to reach approximately 190 million, alongside around 40 million ICEVs, assuming a consistent 9% annual vehicle sales growth rate. As ICEV numbers decline due to EV adoption, daily oil consumption is estimated to decrease by 43% compared to current levels. However, even with an 80% lithium recovery efficiency, the study indicates that lithium reserves will approach in-use lithium levels by the end of the 50-year horizon.