Abstract for: Accelerating circular economy transitions in Accra, Ghana: A system dynamics model analysis

This paper explores the dynamic nature of the transition dynamics that impact Accra’s transition pathways towards a Circular Economy. A System Dynamics (SD) modelling approach is employed, to develop a model representing Accra’s Solid Waste Management system. The SD model developed in this paper simulates the four key lock-ins of Accra’s linear, landfill-based solid waste management system, as they have been identified by previous studies (Tomai et.al., 2023), namely the cognitive, infrastructural, institutional and techno-economic lock-ins. Based on a 20-year timeframe, nine scenarios were simulated, targeted at the most prominent leverage points to break these lock-ins. The performance of the SWM system (i.e. amounts obtained for sorting and recycling, composting and disposal in landfills) was accessed and compared under different scenarios. The analysis is based on secondary data along with empirical evidence from forty-seven in-depth interviews, three transition management workshops and field observations of the authors. The results show that energy recovery from waste management demonstrated the highest environmental impacts, in terms of GHG mitigation, yet it requires a longer timeframe for the benefits to be realised, especially when on-site segregation is absent. In the short run, composting, along with the promotion of waste sorting and recycling initiatives need to be prioritised.