Abstract for: Navigating uncertainty for informed policy: the case of energy transition scenarios

Energy systems modeling and scenario development play vital roles in quantitatively assessing potential trajectories for energy transitions and informing policy decisions. Traditional frameworks often overlook uncertainties inherent in long-term projections. Addressing factors like technological progress, societal preferences, climate dynamics, and political priorities introduces complexity and deep uncertainties into energy models, leading to a wide range of computed scenarios. Uncertainty has been recognized as a significant challenge in modeling, prompting the exploration of methodologies to systematically expose and analyze uncertainties. This paper presents the use of a System Dynamics simulation model designed to perform "what-if" analysis for energy policies, emphasizing the importance of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The model is demonstrated through a case study on decarbonization in the residential sector of a Swiss canton. The framework here presented integrates a bottom-up hybrid modeling approach, global sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty analysis techniques to systematically explore uncertainties and their implications for informing policy. Results highlight the significant impact of input parameter uncertainty on model outcomes, emphasizing the necessity of considering uncertainties in decision-making processes. By employing scenario analysis and clustering techniques, the study identifies critical policy levers that can steer the residential sector toward sustainable energy transitions, offering valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders.