Abstract for: An Adaptive Framework for Complexity Management and Long Term Sustainability of Outer Space

Outer Space, particularly the region between 200km and 2000km above the Earth surface (called Low Earth Orbit) and the region about 36,000 km above the Earth surface (called Geostationary Earth Orbit) has become increasingly congested, contested and competitive. This threatens continued access to Space, space operations and space applications on Earth. Many frameworks have been drafted and adopted to remove the threats to space and preserve Space for humankind’s benefit. However, these frameworks do not fully consider the interdependencies and complexities of both the space environment and the actors. Hence, the sustainability of Outer Space exploration and utilisation remains a lingering problem. Using System Dynamics methodology, this research will attempt to answer the following questions: (i) What are the commonalities, inter-linkages, trends, inconsistencies and gaps of existing frameworks for space sustainability? (ii) How may existing frameworks be modelled to show the positive and negative interactions? (iii) From the model(s) developed, what are the alternative futures (possible scenarios) of the Outer Space environment as well as the factors that could lead to these futures? (iv) What recommendations (technical, policy and organisational) could be useful in attaining the best future?