Abstract for: Rearranging the Deck Chairs: A Simulation Model of Behavioral Resource Utilization Under Crisis

Under what circumstances could seemingly trivial mitigation activities, i.e. “rearranging the deck chairs”, or any possibly preventative activity during a crisis be helpful in reducing negative outcomes? How can the actions of the people during an evolving and crisis materially affect the both the physical and behavioral dynamics of the crisis, and how do humanitarian coordinators balance those actions with the immediate value of fleeing? This work presents a methodological framework for answering these questions via the development of a compartmental differential equation model that explores the interplay of stress response and action efficacy in group survivability during a crisis. This framework illustrates that calming, but even marginally effective, mitigation activities can stabilize or improve crisis outcomes. However a similarly calming, but totally non-effective, mitigation can severely worsen outcomes.