Abstract for: Ocean’s Future to 2050 - Highlights of Aquaculture Demand and Production Modules

What will be the future demand for seafood towards 2050 and how will this be met? With stagnating wild catch from fisheries, the growing future demand for seafood will need to be met by the expansion of the aquaculture sector, which we estimate will produce around 60MT in 2050, around double of today’s production. This presentation will show highlights and results from the aquaculture demand and production sectors of our Ocean Space Forecast model, a model developed to show us what the Blue Economy will look like in 2050. We start with a demand hierarchy determining the total amount and type of protein consumption, divided into 10 world regions, then adjust this based on trade patterns. This adjusted demand gives us our desired aquaculture production, which is limited by infrastructure capacity, with the duration and amount of production dependent on living conditions. The production amount and cost then tie back into the demand hierarchy.