Abstract for: Estimating Green Hydrogen production in Brazil

Green Hydrogen (GH2), derived from electrolysis using various Renewable Energy (RE) sources, is emerging as a pivotal element in the ongoing energy transition. Brazil, with its abundant RE potential, stands at the forefront of numerous nations in this regard. However, uncertainties loom over the outlook for GH2 production, largely due to its current high levelized cost and supply chain intricacies. This paper aims to estimate Brazil's potential for GH2 production and exports by 2050. Utilizing a System Dynamics model, supported by data from official reports, on-site visits to a prospective GH2 hub, and relevant literature, we project the country's RE capacity to expand to 457GW by 2050. This growth, inclusive of both baseline (332GW) and GH2-driven (125GW) increments, is expected to yield annual GH2 production ranging from 2 to 20 million tons. To mitigate potential energy deficits, achieving an electrolysis (EL) capacity of 170GW by 2050 is imperative, necessitating the expedited deployment of RE, notably offshore wind power. The model underscores the necessity of refining public policies concerning GH2, particularly concerning export strategies. By addressing prevailing challenges and strategically bolstering RE infrastructure, Brazil can assert itself as a key player in the global green hydrogen market.