Abstract for: Presenting Uncertain Scenarios

When thinking about different scenarios and the implications of decisions made today on possible future outcomes, we often present scenarios composed of a single run - one value for each variable for each point in time. When paired with the appropriate discussion, this approach can be very effective, but it runs the risk of stakeholders focusing on specific numbers, and thinking our models are far more accurate than they are. That misperception of a model’s utility can detract from a more systemic understanding of issues. By presenting scenarios with an uncertainty-based spread of outcomes, we make the discussion richer and are more likely to get to deep system insights. This paper outlines a relatively straightforward process for representing uncertain scenarios and shows an example of the type of interfaces that can be developed using these techniques.