Abstract for: Assessing the Cross-Border Effects of Climate Change Response Measures on Iran's Energy-Economy System

This study employs system dynamics modeling to assess the impact of climate change mitigation policies on Iran's economy, focusing on the oil sector under various climate scenarios. It first predicts oil price changes across different climate scenarios using system dynamics. Then, it evaluates the future oil market conditions based on oil supply and production scenarios. Utilizing energy-economy models, the research analyzes the economic effects of implementing climate mitigation policies in various sectors, considering oil price fluctuations. The findings highlight Iran's economic vulnerability due to its heavy reliance on fossil fuels and the potential economic shifts due to global climate policies. The analysis includes different Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), indicating potential economic outcomes ranging from a decrease to an increase in Iran's GDP by 2050, depending on the climate scenario. The study suggests that Iran could face significant economic challenges or opportunities, emphasizing the importance of resource management, economic diversification, and investment in a low-carbon economy to mitigate these risks and capitalize on potential growth under certain scenarios.