Abstract for: Projecting Uncertainty with Stella

This workshop will be hands-on and practically oriented. It will cover the process of calibrating models with Stella by incorporating data, defining a payoff, and running an optimization. The resulting parameters, along with informed estimates of their bounds, will then be used to do sensitivity runs to project possible future outcomes. The workshop material will draw on FRIDA and its supporting data. This is a publicly available model being used to understand the implications of closing the loops between climate change and human activity. While the focus of the workshop is on the techniques for doing this type of analysis, there will also be some discussion of the underlying modeling work. Participants should bring their own computers (Windows, Macintosh, or Linux), and we will provide software for use during the workshop.