Abstract for: De-Beefing the U.S. Agrifood System: A Qualitative System Dynamics Approach

Human and planetary health are inextricably linked through our agrifood system and current dietary patterns are unsustainable. High rates of beef consumption contribute disproportionately to the climate crisis and diet-related chronic diseases. As a top producer and consumer of beef globally, the U.S. has an opportunity to tackle the climate crisis through ‘de-beefing,’ an actionable solution to the often-polarizing meat debates, calling for a reduction without complete elimination. Limited action toward de-beefing suggests that despite the co-benefits of shifting away from beef, competing interests and power imbalances contribute to a state of policy inertia. This research employed qualitative system dynamics to identify dynamic structures driving policy resistance to de-beefing the U.S. and strategic points to intervene in the system. The causal loop diagrams presented elucidate three drivers of current U.S. beef consumption trends including (1) availability and accessibility of beef relative to alternatives, (2) powerful industry influence, and (3) strong social norms and information asymmetry. These drivers individually and collectively function as barriers to change. Decision-makers should prioritize actions across these three drivers to increase access and exposure to healthy and sustainable alternatives to beef and increase awareness of the human and environmental impacts of beef.