Abstract for: Estimating material recovery from PV modules: The case of Sweden.

Solar energy is the fastest growing energy source in EU, with an increasing installed capacity poised to be almost tripled by 2030. While Sweden might not initially spring to mind as a key player in the solar energy transition, it is making substantial investments in this technology. In fact, the Swedish Energy Agency targets a capacity growth from 1% to 10% by 2030. This entails a higher demand for photovoltaics (PV) production but also higher volumes of wastes in the coming years. Given the variable lifespans for PV modules and potential premature decommissioning due to defects, the impending increase in waste volumes poses a significant challenge. Moreover, the EU struggles with a supply-demand disparity, heavily dependent on third-party suppliers (mainly China) for materials and PV products. To boost the PV manufacturing supply chain and diminish the dependence on third parties, establishing an ecosystem for efficient recycling of materials is a priority for the EU solar power industry. To address the above and to bridge the information gap regarding aggregated waste and materials, this paper pursues to estimate the volumes and types of materials retrievable from PV module recycling, taking the Swedish industry (2025-2050) as a case. The estimations will be conducted through a Stock and Flow diagram that enables comparing different material recoveries across various years and scenarios.