Abstract for: Projecting the likely impact of COVID-19 infections on the prevalence of Dementia in the United States

Background: The strong association between COVID-19 infection and the onset of dementia among adults 65 years and older has the potential to increase the burden of dementia worldwide. Understanding the likely increase in the burden of dementia due to COVID-19 infection in the USA has significant public policy implications. Objective: Project the prevalence of dementia in the United States while accounting for the impact of COVID-19 infection on the onset of dementia. Methods: A dynamic multi-state population model was developed. The multi-state population model was initialized with the USA demographic data and estimates of age, gender, and race-specific transition rates from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). Results: The burden of dementia among Americans 65 years and older is projected to increase to 16.958 million. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of adults 65 years and older with dementia in the United States is projected to rise by between 1.421 million and 3.706 million, to the likely projected burden of dementia of 18.379 million to 20.664 million by 2050. Conclusion: The projected numbers have policy and intervention implications for social care services and healthcare needs planning, such as providing support systems for caregivers and training adequate healthcare staff to meet the healthcare needs of dementia patients and their families.