Abstract for: Quantifying the 2050 scenarios for Colombia’s electricity sector transition

Electricity supply in Colombia has low carbon emissions, but with growing demand and concerns about energy security, would Colombia reach a zero-carbon electricity supply in the first half of the 21st century? A computer simulation model was developed to study the impact of possible long-term 2050 scenarios for the energy transition in Colombia. The scenarios´ axes are policies’ favorability for the energy transition and economic strength. The model is based on the system dynamics method and includes installed capacity investment, generation dispatch, and reservoir dynamics. Seven technologies and five operational regions disaggregate the model. The model’s results suggest reaching a 100% zero-carbon electricity supply by 2050 under scenarios with high fossil fuel prices and favorable policies. Solar and wind share in the generation matrix is estimated to range between 4 and 26%, while the share of fossil fuels in the generation matrix is between 0 and 7%. Additional policies would be needed to achieve zero-carbon electricity generation in all scenarios.