Abstract for: The role of system dynamics modelling in understanding and supporting integrated natural resources management

This paper provides an overview of how system dynamics modelling (SDM) and systems thinking concepts have been applied to natural resources management. Limits to Growth was arguably the first globally integrated modelling assessment of planetary trajectories in the long term. Models then turned to a more ecological focus, considering issues such as lake ecosystems or predator-prey dynamics. From about 2000, and especially since 2011, SD modelling has been increasingly applied to much broader natural resources systems. The emergence of the water-energy-food (WEF) nexus concept lends itself well to be studies using system dynamics concepts. SD applications to WEF issues have taken place at scales from household to global. The interaction with climate change and socio-economic change is frequently included. Ecosystems integration is a focus of going research, as is considering the impacts to and from human health on resources access, utilisation, and exploitation. Policy implications is an active area of research, crossing disciplines and demanding stakeholder engagement processes. Linking with machine learning technologies to explore vast search spaces is an active research frontier. System dynamics for natural resources modelling has matured over the last 50 years, and the opportunities opening up suggest the next 50 looks very promising.