Abstract for: Repurpose or recycle? Simulating end-of-life scenarios for EV batteries

High numbers of electric vehicles (EVs) are expected to reach end-of-(first)-life during the mo-bility transition, leaving large volumes of scarce materials. At the same time, shortages are ex-pected in the linear supply chain for battery materials. Both factors emphasize the urgency to develop circular pathways in the electric mobility industry. This paper investigates the market formation of a one-loop (recycling first) or double-loop (repurposing first, recycling second) system by simulating long-term business dynamics. We quantitatively assess the reinforcing and counteracting impact of the newly introduced EU Battery Regulation and an LFP substitution. A System Dynamics (SD) Model is built to capture the system’s decision factors for repurposing or recycling end-of-life EV batteries. Our findings reveal that EU policy exceeds the initial benefits of repurposing, allowing policymakers to balance incentives for recycling while not hampering repurposing solutions. As an effect, more recycling facilities are needed, allowing for market potential to invest. We conclude with the need to implement concrete business strategies to man-age the calculated volumes effectively.