Abstract for: Critical minerals and the energy transition

The transition from fossil fuel based energy systems to renewables will require massive increases in production of the so-called critical minerals, many of which have been exploited for more than 100 years. The world will move from a reliance on one set of finite resources to another during the 21st century while population and economic growth continue. The purpose of the study presented here is to identify whether the declining grade of both fossil fuels (i.e. reducing Energy Return on Energy Invested) and / or critical mineral ore grades will constrain the energy transition. A system dynamics model was developed to simulate various energy transition scenarios and the associated additional production energy required as the resources decline in quality to 2100. The results indicate that with ambitious growth in renewables, the depletion of mineral resources will lead to unacceptably high production energy requirements some time in the latter half of this century or early in the next. If fossil fuels continue to be retained in the energy mix at high levels, oil and gas resources will become depleted later this century.