Abstract for: Using System Dynamics Modelling to Determine the Impact of Charging Electric Vehicles on the Hourly Load Profile and Household

In South Africa, there was an increase of 80% more electric vehicles (EVs) being purchased in 2022 compared to 2021. These are passenger vehicles which are assumed to be charged in households in the residential sector. Electric vehicle purchases would be dependent on a variety of factors, which in many countries may be include factors such as incentives, retail prices, market availability, maintenance costs, carbon taxes, fuel costs and vehicle efficiency. In South Africa, the shortage of electricity and the increasing electricity tariffs are perceived to be critical in influencing potential EV purchases. This research was based on the premise that a more expensive tariff during peak demand periods would likely change customer behaviour to charge during off peak periods. It was also undertaken to be able to quantify the impact on household electricity consumption and costs with EV charging at home. A system dynamics simulation was developed in order to explore the dynamics. Results indicated that there was a clear financial incentive to move charging away from peak tariff periods to off-peak, however, it is likely that there will be households where tariffs as a load shifting tool, may not be effective. These are the households where disposable income does not present restrictions because their investments and income are significant.