Abstract for: Using System Dynamics to Predict Health Trends in China: A Close Look at Healthy Life Expectancy

We combined the Sullivan method and the System Dynamics model to simulate the trajectory of China's Healthy Life Expectancy (HALE) from 2000 to 2060. Over this period, a rising trend in China's HALE is observed. Specifically regarding the Healthy Life Expectancy for females which consistently surpasses that of males. The disparity between females and males first widens and then narrows, indicating a convergence trend. However, the extension of females' lifespan is not always synonymous with healthy years. Our goal with this model is to contribute to the creation of sound policies to support China in meeting its development goals.