Abstract for: Behavioural Decision Heuristics in Simulation and Forecasting of Voting Behaviour

This work in progress explores opposing voting campaigns and highlights the complex interplay of various factors, resources and agents that shape voting attitudes. The role of the behavioural decision heuristics is explored for shaping campaigns outcomes, and important implications for understanding and foreseeing voting behaviour changes are demonstrated through the use of scenario simulations. The main method applied is a hybrid resource – agent approach to simulation modelling of ideological campaigns, using system dynamics with agent-based components. Main key ''resources'' and ''agents'' can be conceptualised as information or content resources that can be communicated and disseminated through other resources, like media or social networks, and individuals or organizations that actively create, disseminate or receive ideological messages and take voting decisions. This simulation approach can be used to forecast and compare different outcome scenarios of each of the opposing campaigns, and to study the dynamics of the adoption and diffusion of voting behaviours, while exploring behavioural decision heuristics and other important influencing factors and key turning points.