Abstract for: Integrated Assesement Modeling of a LowCarbon Future:Linking Economy, Energy, and Materials Models for a Sustainable Transition
The EU-Horizon 2020 Locomotion project aims to develop a global integrated assessment model that can address how a low-carbon future can be achieved. The model consists of several models subdivided into sub-models, covering topics such as the economy, energy, materials, demography, climate, land, water, and society. This abstract focuses on the material model, which aims to endogenously generate the demand for materials such as oil, gas, coal, and metals, rather than relying on exogenous demand projections. The material models are linked to the economic and energy models to avoid the problem of weak linkage found in other integrated assessment models. The methodology of the material model is based on Cause Loop Diagrams and System-Dynamics, using mass balance equations to model the flows of materials from geological sources to markets, where they get traded, sold, or transferred to society. The availability and price of hydrocarbons can have significant impacts on the economy and energy models, depending on scenarios such as continued reliance on fossil fuels, transition to renewable energy, or hybrid energy systems. Higher hydrocarbon prices can increase costs for economic sectors and shift economic activity.