Abstract for: Navigating Urbanisation Challenges in Developing Regions: Towards a Smart and Green Systems Model

Rapid urbanisation and urban primacy present growing challenges in the developing world, particularly in Africa, where traditional urban planning tools are deficient in actionable geospatial intelligence. This study aims to provide anticipatory and predictive decision support for sustainable urbanisation in Africa, using the Kenyan capital city of Nairobi as a prototype. The research proposes a systems model incorporating geospatial metrics and criteria for smart and green growth, considering development footprints, process drivers, state variables, and critical feedbacks. Running the model shows that Nairobi will require about 400 million cubic metres of water for domestic purposes per year by 2029, a key planning metric. The population of Nairobi was projected to reach 7 million by 2029, coming closer to being a mega city. This model can be adapted to achieve optimal development densities based on local carrying capacities. Integrated parametric models, geospatial technologies, and dynamic modelling are required to address the complex spatial and temporal challenges of realising the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal 11 (sustainable cities and communities).