Abstract for: Forecasting global energy use towards 2060
We report that global energy use (the sum of electricity and heat) per person can be approximated by the formula y = a * ( 1 - EXP( - x / c ) ) * ( EXP( - ( year – 1980 ) / d ) ) where y = energy use per person in tons of oil equivalents per year per person, x = GDP per person in thousand 2017 PPP $ per year per person, a = 25, c = 100 and d = 60. We derived the formula and the parameters from time series data for 10 global regions and for the world total from 1986 to 2019, using conventional UN data. We drive the formula with consistent time series for population and GDP per person from a business-as-usual scenario (“TLTL”) generated by our Earth4All simulation model of world development from 2020 to 2100. We calculate future energy use as population times energy use per person and conclude that total energy use will grow to a peak before 2040, at a level which is only some 25 % higher than current energy use. Our forecast is low, but supported by DNV Energy Transition Outlook 2023. See www.2052.info for draft paper.