Abstract for: A Qualitative Framework of Vehicle Demand Prediction Model for Indian Road Transport

Demand for personal vehicle is continuously increasing in India because of the rise in income level. However, the transport sector in India accounted for more than 13% of carbon emissions in 2021. The Indian government is taking steps to decarbonise the transport sector by providing incentives for alternate vehicle purchases. The current study proposes a qualitative framework of system dynamics model for vehicle demand prediction considering the critical feedback loops impacting the alternative vehicle demand and, consequently, the total vehicle demand. The causal loop diagram of vehicle demand incorporates four important areas namely, socio-economic development, infrastructure development, environmental awareness, and fuel supply market. The adoption of the alternate vehicle will be driven by policy incentives, technological development and supporting infrastructure in terms of refuelling stations and maintenance facilities. Economic activity, urban sprawl, alternate vehicle demand and total vehicle demand are found to be key model variables interacting with important causal loops.