Abstract for: Using System dynamics to Better Understand the Dynamics of Reliable Availability, Affordability, and Cleaner Electricity
The objective of this research project is to seek an “understanding of the complex dynamics of energy policy, nuclear power, and electricity related to CO2 emissions.” The outcome is expected to contribute to the ongoing global efforts toward the mitigation of climate change and global warming. The case of Pakistan is no exception. Pakistan encompasses the key assets and challenges inherent in a growing economy with an increasing population, increasing electricity demand, and rising CO2 emission and therefore is an appropriate microcosm for this study. We will leverage Pakistan’s current electricity demand-supply status and describe the design, construction, validation, and application of a system dynamic model. Our results show that Pakistan is better off (i.e., in terms of reliable availability, affordability, and cleaner supply of electricity), with adding more nuclear power plants to its electricity generation capacity and with a dominant share of nuclear power generation (i.e., a 32% share of nuclear power was produced in the nuclear power dominant scenario, Pakistan can not only meet its PA-based pledged reduction of CO2 emissions but can embrace a path toward a low-carbon emitting electricity supply mix and a low-carbon economic regime.