Abstract for: System dynamics modeling for predicting socio-economic-environmental evolution in highly anthropized Mar Menor coastal areas

The research includes an explanatory model and initial feedback loop analysis to explain the historical development and current state of the Mar Menor lagoon and the relationships among different stakeholders. Feedback loops are the key concept in the system dynamics approach that helps to understand the dynamics behavior over time. This study uses stakeholders' participatory SD modeling to support reaching a shared understanding of the problem (s) among different sectors in the highly anthropized Mar Menor lagoon. It unpacks the region's social, cultural, ecological, and economic interconnections. It aims to summarize the regulatory framework and the main regional planning strategies, particularly those whose activities and decisions generate change in the Mar Menor region. It will be done in inter-sectoral and cross-sectoral stakeholder participatory workshops in which stakeholders are local and regional experts who know about the problem and its causes. We aim for the SD explanatory model will generate a new understanding of potential cross-sectoral and cross-level integrated scenarios and policies to help the Mar Menor regional sustainable developments. Additionally, it illustrates the role of participatory systems mapping methodology in assessing complex systems transitions and supporting decision-making in a holistic, sustainable management framework that can address the eutrophic crisis of the Mar Menor coastal lagoon.