Abstract for: Modeling Public Transportation Attractiveness in System Dynamics: The Significance of Safety Perception

The perception of safety while using public transit is a neglected influence on ridership in most system dynamics transit models. With a preliminary conceptual model, we show how safety perception could be integrated into public transit models. We modeled safety perception as a function of internal safety measures as well as the external social environ-ment that the transit system is embedded in. Potential perceived safety then influences the attractiveness of public trans-it, on top of the typical convenience factors found in existing models. The model is sensitive to changes in both indica-tors of safety perception, confirming the importance of these factors. Therefore, we contend that including these factors improves the conceptualization of public transit attractiveness, which leads to a better understanding of possible policies to increase ridership. Nevertheless, the conceptual model presented here is highly simplified and is preliminary. We further discuss opportunities for future directions in public transit modeling for including safety perception.