Abstract for: Modelling Singapore’s Energy Security 2050: A System Dynamics Approach
Faced with international climate obligations and domestic pressure, Singapore has recently raised its climate goals significantly. The government had affirmed its intention for carbon emissions to peak before 2030 and for Singapore to attain net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. However, as Singapore transitions to green energy, there remains much uncertainty if this transformation, coupled with rapidly evolving geopolitics, would present vulnerabilities to energy security. Hence, this project seeks to investigate Singapore’s possible paths to achieve these goals while enhancing energy security. Key parameters of energy security in the Singaporean context are identified to determine how different policy decisions would influence them. The effects of various current and potential policies can thus be evaluated using a system dynamics approach, novel for a resource-scarce nation. Herein, systems modelling reveal that Singapore would have to pioneer new energy supply solutions while furthering efforts in reducing energy demand. Singapore’s energy security can then achieve sustainability in economic, energy supply chain and environmental dimensions.