Abstract for: The Brazilian Open Electric Market and the impact of solar PV growth
The Brazilian Electric Market is undergoing a structural change with more competition among Generators and Distribution Companies, leading toward an Open Electric Market. The literature has no agreement concerning how this market opening will influence renewable generation growth. This article aims to determine whether the opening of the Brazilian Electric Market influences the diffusion of solar PV. Our results show that market opening should contribute to solar PV installed capacity growth. In the most optimistic scenario, solar PV installed capacity will increase from 0,1 GW in 2010 to 64 GW in 2040. In all scenarios, the demand for solar generation in the Open Market exceeds that of the regulated one. Furthermore, the demand for solar PV is greater than the capacity available for sale. We conclude that market opening creates opportunities for new business models for solar PV technology, attracting investors and contributing to greater diversification of the electric grid and lower dependence on thermal and hydro plants.