Abstract for: Modeling the Supply of the Physician Workforce as well as the Population’s Demand and Need for Physicians in the United State
When the supply of physicians is inadequate, then people who need health care are less likely to be able to get it, and those with access to health care may face reduced quality due to strains placed upon the health care system. Models designed to project possible futures for the need, demand, and supply of physician workforce can help policymakers, the medical education system, and health care systems plan for future physician workforce needs and direct their resources accordingly. The Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) produces health care workforce projections used by Congress, AAMC members, states, and other institutions to evaluate current and possible workforce supply policies in the context of plausible scenarios. In April 2022, AAMC contracted with the RAND Corporation to develop a new national physician workforce projection model using system dynamics. This paper describes the model developed by RAND and AAMC over the past year.