Abstract for: The role of alternative combustion vehicles and the modal changes on the path to decarbonizing road transport
One of the most important challenges of today's cities is more sustainable transport. In this article we develop a system dynamics model that proposes an integrated framework that evaluates two ways of reducing emissions in the transport sector in a region of Colombia: modal changes and the diffusion of vehicles with alternative propulsion sources. The model has four interconnected modules: 1) vehicle/motorcycle stock, 2) use of transport, 4) fueling points infrastructure, 5) electricity consumption, and 6) emissions. We find that by 2050 HEVs could have a 48% share and BEVs 16%. Modal and vehicle fleet changes could lead to the avoidance of 36.4 Mt of CO2 equivalent between 2016 and 2050 but could also increase electricity demand to 1,530 GWh per year in 2050.