Abstract for: Modeling Drinking and Driving Behaviors of Adolescents and Young Adults in the United States from 1982 to 2019

Alcohol impaired driving is a formidable public health problem in the United States; each day, around 28 people die in alcohol related crashes. We developed a causal loop diagram of drinking and driving behaviors among adolescents and young adults through two group model building sessions with a team of multidisciplinary subject matter experts, and a comprehensive literature review. The objective of this paper is to present the system dynamics simulation model that we built based on the causal loop diagram that we developed, show the historical data that we obtained from different sources, report the calibrated parameters, and test whether the hypothesized mechanisms are capable of generating the observed behavior. The model replicates most of the historical trends. However, the model does not yet fully reflect all observed trends and model revision and calibration need to be continued before it can be effectively used for policy analysis.