Abstract for: Modeling the Impact of Vaccine Supply Chain on Seasonal Infectious Disease

An ability to optimize policy to mitigate infectious disease helps ensure significant health and economic benefits. Every year seasonal influenza severity is unpredictable and policymakers are facing challenges in determining an optimal immunization strategy. This research approach integrates the well-known SEIR disease model with a vaccine supply chain model to explore the impact of vaccination supplies on the progression of seasonal influenza infectious disease. All public health organizations encourage vaccination throughout the influenza season. In this research, the system dynamics model presents vaccine supply effects on seasonal infectious diseases. Comparisons are made between cases with and without vaccination policy, with different vaccine order quantities and conditions. Sensitivity analysis includes parameters R0, vaccine order, vaccine deployment, vaccine yield and vaccine cost. The analysis reveals that vaccine policy affects the spread of seasonal influenza infectious disease. The results identify seasonal influenza vaccination programs within immunization time frames are an effective strategy in the context of public health.