Abstract for: Modelling India’s Schooling Progress

India recently slipped on the UN’s Sustainable Development, education target for Goal 4. How difficult is it for India to achieve Goal 4 targets by 2030? We examine this question and make three important contributions. Firstly, we find that without interventions, by 2030, India's Youth Literacy is likely to remain below 92%. This will adversely impact the UN's SD Goal 4, Target, 6. Existing stock of illiterates makes it difficult for illiteracy to come down. Secondly, we find that even beyond 2030, nearly 40% of the workforce will likely continue to be below the secondary school level. This will negatively influence the UN’s SDG Goal 4, Target 1. Our third main contribution is to develop a schooling years index for India. The index can be used for conveying India’s educational attainment progress. We find that without aggressive interventions, by 2030, India’s average schooling years are unlikely to improve much.