Abstract for: System Dynamics to Assess Transmission Expansion in the Colombian Electricity System

The current transition of electricity markets towards new renewable energy sources (NRES), such as solar and wind, creates important challenges for all the actors in the electricity system, as the intermittency of wind and solar will change the behavior of many – if not all – key variables in the system. This is particularly challenging for grid expansion planning, since transmission requirements depend on many variables, and they need to be anticipated so that the grids can be available when the need arises without compromising security of supply. This paper proposes a novel System Dynamics model in order to understand the potential effects of NRES in transmission necessities. A case-study in Colombia is presented to illustrate the likely behaviors of grid expansion, showing the importance of considering generation availability patterns and location of new power plants.