Abstract for: Vision Modeling and Assessment Using System Dynamics - Application to a Sustainable Logistics Vision
Vision models focus on designing and analyzing a desired future state of a production and consumption system, such as food, energy or transportation systems. Methodological frameworks are currently lacking that guide the development of quantitative models of sustainability visions which take an integrated viewpoint (technical, economic, ecological and social aspects) and allow for the involvement of stakeholders. In this respect, system dynamics modeling is a particularly promising method to analyze multi-causality, feedback structures and stock-and-flow dynamics from an integrated viewpoint and involve stakeholders in model development. This contribution presents a stepwise methodological framework for systematically developing vision models using causal loop diagrams for vision design and quantitative system dynamics modeling for vision assessment. An application of the framework is provided dealing with a visionary logistics system that complies with several sustainability targets, including carbon-neutral transportation and avoidance of soil sealing in the proliferation of logistic centers. A system dynamics model is presented that shows sustainable logistics systems at the local, regional and international scale, as well as their combination in a multi-scale system.