Abstract for: Understanding Vaccine Allocation Strategies for COVID-19

Development of vaccines against the SARS-CoV-2 virus in record time provides optimism on the rising number of infections and deaths. However, with the demand exceeding the supply by a large factor, each dose must be judiciously allocated to have the maximum possible effect on reducing the number of infections. This research analyses the SIRDV compartmental model through the perspective of system dynamics. We look at different realistic scenarios that can help the policy makers decide the course of action in terms of allocation of available doses. The second wave of COVID-19 as experienced by the Indian state of Tamil Nadu forms the backdrop of the study. The model is validated by comparing the number of daily confirmed cases, daily number of recoveries and the daily number of deaths with the real world data. We observe that prioritizing the first dose over the second dose leads to lesser number of infections and deaths. Also, extending the interdose interval from 3 weeks to 12-16 weeks leads to lower number of daily deaths. Scenarios pertaining to changing vaccine effectiveness and vaccine availability are also studied.