Abstract for: Flood risk management in a complex urban system using a participatory System Dynamics approach

The increasing frequency and intensity of flood events exacerbated by climate change, along with the complex dynamic evolution of urban systems due to population growth, are limiting the effectiveness of traditional urban flood risk modelling tools. In traditional modelling approaches, the analyses performed are indeed stationary and the elements of the urban system that affect vulnerability and exposure are not considered. This work in progress proposes an innovative approach for supporting decision-makers in exploring different urban future configurations and developing adaptive strategy for urban flood risk management. A multi-step methodology based on participatory System Dynamics modelling, is used for this purpose. Firstly, a Causal Loop Diagram enabled to coupling flood risk with urban dynamics. In this way it was possible to formulate hypothesis on both urban dynamics and policies implementation in case of flooding. Secondly, a Stock and Flow model related to the flood risk analysis will be integrated with the Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways approach in order to choose a series of flood adaptation actions for the urban system. Reference is made to the Thamesmead urban regeneration case study (London), within the CUSSH and CAMELLIA projects.