Abstract for: Optimization and Calibration with Stella

This workshop will cover the mechanics of, and ideas behind, optimization and calibration of System Dynamics models using Stella. Using models distributed as part of the workshop set up, participants will learn how to perform optimizations to maximize outcome objectives in a model. Then, using data and models also provided as part of the setup how to perform the calibration of a model against data. Time permitting, there will be some discussion of combining optimization with sensitivity analysis, using random restarts to test the global characteristics of an optimization or calibration parameter set, and computing confidence bounds on calibration parameters. The discussion will be largely practical and does not require any background in statistics. Participants should have a good grasp of the mechanics of using Stella or have attended the introductory workshop. There are no reading or advanced preparation requirements. Participants should bring their own computers, either Macintosh or Windows, and we will install the software for use during the workshop.