Abstract for: Calibrating an Energy Planning Model for Niger: A System Dynamics Approach

Developing countries experience frequent power outages during the summer months. Load shedding becomes the norm for utilities to deal with these persisting issues to avoid a total blackout. Due to greater demand, these power outages are generally more noticeable in the capital cities. This paper utilizes system dynamics to model energy planning in Niger. The analysis spans from 2003 to 2050. The model was tested on six policy scenarios, but only the base case is presented. This model can be utilized for policies in emerging countries. Population, household-size, per-capita electricity, and the industrial sectors were input to predict the future electricity supply and demand patterns. Although Niger lacks detailed energy data, the method yields a concise energy model, which may assist utilities in planning. Results showed that the state-owned company (NIGELEC) emits 37 Mega-Tonnes of equivalent CO2 into the environment via its fossil-fueled plants. Results also revealed that, even with the 80-100MW diesel plant installed at Gorou-Banda (2017), upcoming 20MW of PV system (2024), and full commissioning of the 130MW Kandadji dam (2025), Niger would only be energy self-sufficient for a decade. Consequently, imports continue to play significant roles in Niger’s energy mix, thus hindering any noticeable long-term socio-economic development.