Abstract for: Modelling the Long-term HIV Immune Viral Dynamics and Medical Treatment of HIV Infection

This biomedical work centers on applying system dynamics methodology to studying the long-term HIV immune viral dynamics in terms of feedback theory. The objective is to enhance understanding of the typical development path from HIV to AIDS as well as to explore various outcomes owing to varied ART adherence in real setting. Moreover, it is projected to nudge HIV patients better to adhere to ART through an interactive learning environment built upon the underlying system dynamics model. It is found that the underlying model structure is capable of reproducing the general patterns of human immune system failure and HIV viral explosion by synthesizing existing clinical evidence and by calibrating model parameters. In addition, model analysis indicates that three decomposed dynamics of immune cells and HIV virus over the whole infecting cycle can be interpreted from the perspective of loop dominance – interactions between positive and negative loops. Although there is no cure for HIV/AIDS infection at present, high adherence to ART can suppress HIV virus successfully for a long period as has been validated in policy scenario analysis. In combination with real-world evidence, this modelling work echoes and highlights the importance of ART adherence in real environment.